Chandran on NEPAL

NEPAL: One year after comprehensive Peace Accord- Nothing to cheer about
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Former President Carter visited Nepal and met all the important people last week. Prachanda after his meeting with Carter declared that his party’s relations with
USA have become stronger since Carter’s earlier visit in June. He also indicated that his party has established informal communication with the US Government “in
one or other ways”Prachanda told Carter that the peace process was more important than the constitutional polls and that the polls cannot be held without addressing
some of the sensitive issues such as effective management of cantonments, relief assistance to martyrs’ families and settling cases of disappearances.
This gives a clue to Maoists thinking that even if the twin demands of republic and PR system are met, the Maoists will not go to polls unless all other outstanding
issues like the PLA integration, relief to the martyrs’ families etc. are resolved to their satisfaction. These issues cannot be resolved before the next projected date of
elections sometime between April and June 2008. The point that is not understood is the aversion of the Maoists in facing the electorate. Their popularity continues to
decline further each day.
The civic bodies who were in the forefront during the Jana Andolan II have become silent again though one would have expected them to talk openly about the failure
of the Maoists to keep up their commitments. The YCL continues to be on a rampage. Seized properties have not been returned. Extortions in the name of taxation
continue. The professional groups who were also in the forefront during the agitation are now out in the streets protesting against the growing lawlessness of the
Maoists. On 26 November, 2007, the Nepal Bar Association, Nepal Medical Association, Federation of Nepalese Journalists, Nepal University Teachers’
Association, Association of Private and Boarding Schools and other human rights organisations staged a ‘sit in’ protest before the Secretariat building demanding the
resignation of the Home Minister for having failed to restore law and order.
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By Dr. S. Chandrasekharan

On November 21, 2006, Prime Minister G. P. Koirala and Prachanda, chairperson of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) signed a comprehensive Peace
Accord with a commitment to transform the cease fire reached between the two sides into a long term Peace.
One year after the accord, the only positive aspect is that the Maoists have not reverted to people’s war though of late they have been threatening to renew the war
for ten years (Dy. Commander Pun) or even 40 years! (Prachanda)
While all the stakeholders maintain that the peace process is still continuing, the failure of both sides to have the constitutional assembly elections held in time gives rise
to serious doubts on the sustainability of the process itself and the country is seen to be lurching from one crisis to another.
Many well-meaning visitors and analysts believe that once the two demands of the Maoists declaring the country a republic before the CA polls and adopting the fully
proportional representation system are accepted , the way will open for the Maoists to participate in the polls that could be conducted soon after the winter in 2008.
But they are likely to be disappointed. There will certainly be fresh demands before the elections and the only uncertain aspect will be the number of demands as it
may not be twenty point again!
The point that is not understood is the aversion of the Maoists in facing the electorate. Their popularity continues to decline further each day. The civic bodies who
were in the forefront during the Jana Andolan II have become silent again though one would have expected them to talk openly about the failure of the Maoists to
keep up their commitments. The YCL continues to be on a rampage. Seized properties have not been returned. Extortions in the name of taxation continue.
The professional groups who were also in the forefront during the agitation are now out in the streets protesting against the growing lawlessness of the Maoists. On 26
November, 2007, the Nepal Bar Association, Nepal Medical Association, Federation of Nepalese Journalists, Nepal University Teachers’ Association, Association
of Private and Boarding Schools and other human rights organisations staged a ‘sit in’ protest before the Secretariat building demanding the resignation of the Home
Minister for having failed to restore law and order.
The INSEC, a non governmental organisation has said that in the last one year 234 people were killed with 772 abducted and the contribution of the Maoists was 21
persons killed, 495 abducted, 380 beaten up and extortion on 122 others. Besides the killing of the journalist Virendra Shah in Bara, it has now come to light that the
Maoists were responsible for the disappearance of Journalist Prakash Thakur who was missing since the last four months. Former President Carter visited Nepal and
met all the important people last week. Prachanda after his meeting with Carter declared that his party’s relations with USA have become stronger since Carter’s
earlier visit in June. He also indicated that his party has established informal communication with the US Government “in one or other ways”
Prachanda told Carter that the peace process was more important than the constitutional polls and that the polls cannot be held without addressing some of the
sensitive issues such as effective management of cantonments, relief assistance to martyrs’ families and settling cases of disappearances. This gives a clue to Maoists
thinking that even if the twin demands of republic and PR system are met, the Maoists will not go to polls unless all other outstanding issues like the PLA integration,
relief to the martyr’s families etc. are resolved to their satisfaction. These issues cannot be resolved before the next projected date of elections sometime between
April and June 2008.
Carter also suggested a broad framework for resolving the outstanding issues. These wereInterim Parliament to declare with an “overwhelming vote” that a republic is created to be confirmed by a simple majority of the Constitutional members.
Allotting 70 percent by proportional representation system and 30 percent by first past the post system
Eight seats to be allotted to each of the major parties and one each to other smaller parties.
Time bound round table discussion on any final agreement that should include representatives from marginalised groups.
On point 1, the seven party alliance had already informally offered a commitment to the republic and confirmation after the CA polls with a simple majority. The
Maoists rejected it then. The suggestion given now is no different as the majority in the parliament have already voted for a republic.On point 2, it will be
advantageous to all the minority groups except the two major parties. Here again it is likely that the Nepali Congress will get isolated more and more.
Point 3 is not very clear from the media reports whether it relates to the cabinet, interim government or about seats in the Assembly.
Point 4 is what the Maoists have been asking for. Except for point 1 which is really not a serious issue right now, Carter’s road map is more favourable to the
Maoists but as I said before, the Maoists will come with more demands to prevent the elections from taking place. One major demand I would expect from the seven
party alliance is the disbandment of the YCL.
The UML having joined with the Maoists in passing the two resolutions on the PR system and the republic, has come with a variation on the PR system. This is what
is called MMPR system ( Mixed Member Proportional system) It works out as follows. Out of 440 seats, half the number of seats are obtained by first past the post
system and the other half by proportional representation system with each party giving a list of members. Suppose Party A gets 20 percent in first past the post- this
would amount to 44 seats. In the proportional representation the party gets 40 percent- so the total number of seats for the party will be 40 percent of the 440 that is
176 including the 44 seats already elected in the first past the post.
The MMPR is not very different from the total proportional system but is a little more realistic and would take into account the marginalised groups who could have a
substantial presence. This could be acceptable to the Maoists- but will they allow the CA elections to be gone through? It is doubtful.